Nowadays, there’s a specific type of conversation that takes place at dinner tables, usually in between the main course and dessert. When someone brings up Bitcoin, the room becomes silent for a moment. Everybody knows someone who bought in. Every time, someone claims they nearly did. Even though the actual numbers tell a quieter, stranger story, the math being thrown around lately feels suspiciously round—I would have had a fortune.
Consider the most basic scenario. According to Bankrate’s calculations, a thousand dollars invested in Bitcoin in August 2020, when the world was still reorganizing around the pandemic, would be worth roughly $9,689 today. Not transformative. Not nothing, either. It’s the kind of return that, in a savings account, would have appeared miraculous, but in the cryptocurrency community, where ten-baggers are the standard for bragging rights, it would have been merely respectable.
However, that number has more weight than a percentage. The investor who persisted through 2020 was not at ease the entire time. There was the euphoria of 2021, when Bitcoin approached $69,000 and seemed to be destined. Then came 2022, when the asset’s price dropped by about three-quarters and returned to the mid-$16,000s. During those months, no one was keeping an eye on their portfolio and considering long-term compounding. Most likely, they were considering ways out.
The highlight reels omit this section. The investor with the now-famous $496,927 return on $1,000 from 2015 to 2025 required more than just vision. They required a pain threshold that was nearly unhuman. The 2018 crash, which lost over 80% of its value, had to be disregarded. The “Bitcoin is dead” headlines, which have been published several hundred times, according to different counts, had to be disregarded. The majority of early purchasers might have sold long before any of that was profitable. Usually, it is.
As this develops, there’s a tendency to view the history of Bitcoin as a single line that moves upward and to the right. The illusion is supported by the zoomed-out chart. However, when you zoom in, it resembles a heart monitor during a panic attack. While sitting through swings that would have humbled anyone with a mortgage and a conscience, the 2020 buyer managed to turn $1,000 into about ten thousand dollars.
The real source of discomfort is the math that lies ahead. Recently, The Motley Fool calculated the likelihood that $1,000 today could grow to $1 million by 2045. You end up with roughly $146,000 at a 30 percent annual compound rate, which, incidentally, would still be exceptional by any historical standard outside of cryptocurrency. Amazing, if it occurs. Not even close to a million. Even though their audience doesn’t want to, those who sell that fantasy are aware that the early Bitcoin returns aren’t coming back.
What is left after that? Most likely something more truthful than the typical crypto discourse permits. The investor in 2020 was successful. They did not become wealthy. They received a return that outperformed nearly everything else during that window, including the S&P, gold, and the majority of tech stocks. However, the comparison favors Bitcoin in part because the other options were unimpressive. The reward came with a degree of stress that most asset classes don’t put on their owners.
Speaking with those who persevered gives me the impression that the lesson has nothing to do with Bitcoin. It’s about how anyone can easily rewrite their own patience in retrospect. It’s generous math. Even more generosity is often found in memory.
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